Sri Lanka’s Sovereignty at risk : India’s geopolitical checkmates
Are Sri Lanka’s govts, policy advisors & close coterie living in a delusional world thinking that a takeover of a country only happens via invasions as took place under Portuguese, Dutch, British ruling Sri Lanka from 1505-1972? Have they not noticed or kept track of the manner India is building its stronghold over Sri Lanka diplomatically/politically, economically, strategically, culturally and aligned to a new Arkhand Bharath – unified subcontinent including Sri Lanka under India?
Sri Lanka’s relations with India has both positive & negative aspects. Though Buddha was not born in India but in present Nepal, it was King Ashoka who sent his son who became Mihindu thero to propagate Buddhism in Sri Lanka while his daughter Sangamitta Therani brought the sacred Bo Sapling placed in Sri Maha Bodhiya, Anuradhapura.
The Sinhale kings held diplomatic/trade relations with Indian rulers though Sri Lanka suffered 17 invasions from South India. The present tensions arise from the settlements of these invasions, the colonial settler schemes by Portuguese, Dutch & British.
Sri Lanka’s distrust with India primarily follows the secret training of Sri Lankan Tamil militants on Indian soil that resulted in a 30 year bloodshed, while India used the militancy to force Sri Lanka to sign the Indo-Lanka Pact in 1987, amend Sri Lanka’s Constitution & insert clauses with historical falsehoods not in the interest of Tamils but to use the Tamil card & fortify Indian interests in Sri Lanka’s North & East.
The dispatch of Indian Peace Keepers was part of the plan though they were unceremoniously sent back by then President Premadasa who met his waterloo 3 years after IPKF was sent back.
The majority of Sri Lankans continue to blame India for the 30 year terrorism in particular their memories of how India prevented the capture of Prabakaran & whisked him off to safety in Delhi in 1987 by Indian helicopters. Sri Lankans hold India accountable for every death LTTE committed since 1987.
Another thorn is the fishing issue where internationally banned bottom trawlers are coming in their thousands from South India to illegally fish on Sri Lanka’s territorial waters & also systematically ruining the marine bed/ecosystem which will sooner than later deprive Sri Lankan fishermen in coastal areas a means of livelihood.
Majority of Sri Lankans also hold India accountable for using the “concern for Tamils” to justify interfering in Sri Lanka’s internal affairs, even influencing how Tamils cast their vote. The manner India is exerting undue pressure is even beginning to annoy Tamils in the North as well.
Sri Lankans are also angered with India given its lack of support at the UNHRC resolutions against Sri Lanka, given India’s initial role in fostering & harboring terrorism on Indian soil. This angst is further strengthened by the realization that the Islamic suicide bombers were also frequent visitors to India prior to carrying out their mass suicide.
Another area where Sri Lankans fault India is the bullying it exerts diplomatically preventing Sri Lanka building relations with its historical friends like China, Cuba, Russia, Pakistan. Though they may be strategic rivals of India, they have never used Sri Lanka against India. Ironically, while India plots to overthrow Sri Lankan governments for building closer relations with China, India is increasing its investments & business relations with China.
The sincerity with which Emperor Ashoka functioned can never be compared or achieved by post-independent Indian leaders. On the contrary, Buddhism is being craftily used as a soft power foreign policy tool while at the same time forcing Sri Lanka to create a pro-Hindu bogus & solely mythical Ramayana Trail officially to attract Indians to Sri Lanka with real intents kept hidden.
Unfortunately, Sri Lanka’s politicians concentrating only on securing and enjoying power, devoid of Statesmanship are ignoring the manner that India is subtly devoring Sri Lanka into its sphere of influence, initially as a counterbalance to China but in reality to fortify its global importance across the Indian Ocean region. India is doing so economically, via imports/exports, investments, strategic support, credit lines & aid, infrastructure projects, religious/cultural collaborations, stakes in airports/ports/harbors that hold the key to an island nation, humanitarian aid, defense & energy pacts.
How has India been exerting its influence over Sri Lanka since defeat of LTTE in May 2009?
At all times, the trick is to realize that over dependency is hara kiri for Sri Lanka.
How India will wrest control over Sri Lanka –
Economically – India’s economic influence is a key soft power strategic tool
Sri Lanka’s dependency on trade with India Indian imports/exports /transshipment trade – petroleum, textiles, machinery, chemicals, food, cement.
India being a critical provider to Sri Lanka’s energy security means any disruption will impact Sri Lanka. Imagine if India STOPS sending petroleum, textiles, machinery, chemicals, foodstuff etc if Sri Lanka does not comply to India’s demands, what will Sri Lanka do?
Indian investments & credit lines means Sri Lanka is bound by conditions imposed by India where the money given has to be spent on buying goods from India thus inking Sri Lanka’s dependency further.
The loans India has given Sri Lanka can be used as political leverage against Sri Lanka demanding Sri Lanka makes foreign policy decisions to India’s advantage or settle loans.
Manipulation of trade agreements in favor of India as well as influencing clauses beneficial to India is no secret. India could also “adjust” or “revoke” terms of the trade agreements with India which will impact Sri Lankan businesses relying on Indian markets & causing turmoil internally.
Debt leverage should also be a concern & Sri Lanka’s politicians should not forget how India cut off electricity to Bangladesh due to non payment. Sri Lanka is signing an MOU with India to share electricity grid – will the scenario that happened to Bangladesh not occur to Sri Lanka, in such a scenario what do Sri Lanka’s politicians propose to do?
With India’s insistence to sign ECTA the service agreement that enables Indians to work, live & reside in Sri Lanka as well as employ members of Indian families to work in Indian companies operating in Sri Lanka is clearly a means of flooding Sri Lanka with millions of Indians who are unemployed & would result in a demographic catastrophe as well as place Sri Lanka’s resources (land, water, food etc) in a significantly vulnerable state.
Though Sri Lanka’s leaders have failed to realize Sri Lanka’s importance as an island in the Indian Ocean is due to its location & to self-protect & strengthen that advantage, Sri Lanka has been happily giving away the keys to Sri Lanka to entities that can use the airports/ports/harbors to even block anything entering or leaving Sri Lanka. In such a scenario how vulnerable will Sri Lanka & its citizens be?
The economic leverage India holds over Sri Lanka should be a serious concern in view of India’s action against Nepal during the 2015 economic embargo closing all entry/exit points to food, petrol, medical needs of Nepal that goes through India. This took place for several months resulting in China having to drop essentials via plane. The reason for the Indian embargo was Nepals refusal to include provisions in Nepals new constitution that India demanded. This scenario has very close links to Sri Lanka & politicians cannot ignore this possibility happening to Sri Lanka as well. India as supplier can easily decide to “reduce” or “delay shipments” of essential goods (food, fuel, medicines, electricity supply etc) to Sri Lanka if Sri Lanka refuses to do as India says or adopts policies India does not like.
Cultural/Religious influence & Soft Power diplomacy: while profaning reverence to Buddhism it is no secret that hundreds of Siva Lingams have arrived to replace the ancient Buddhist structures in the North & East. Vaddamana Pabbatha vihara demolition & erection of a siva lingam is a perfect example with the remaining Buddhist theros under tremendous pressure & harassment by hired racists while the calls to close army camps in the North & remove the military is to subtly remove the Sinhala Buddhist presence from the North & East leaving India to dictate how the 2 provinces are run. Part of PM Modi’s itinerary is a meditation session in Trincomalee’s Gokanna Temple which is being presented as a hindu kovil. There can be no cultural & religious collaboration if beneath the façade, attempts are foot to erase the Buddhist identity of Sri Lanka.
Defense/military/counter terrorism cooperation: Hereto it must not be forgotten how India clandestinely trained Tamil militancy against the Sri Lankan Govt that resulted in 30 years of bloodshed. Not stopping there the recent Islamic mass suicide bombers were also frequent visitors to South India before carrying out their suicide attacks. When Indo-Lanka Accord required Indian Naval to stop terrorism, LTTE was openly travelling to Tamil Nadu & using it as a logistics hub while Indian Navy looked on. Innumerable illegal smuggling is taking place via Kerala to Sri Lanka. While India is also demanding Kachchetivu island ignoring all the official documents that clearly places it under Sri Lanka’s territory. These are no actions of a “friend”.
India’s heavy investments in infrastructure/ports/airports/roads/rail etc means India has the power to exert tremendous influence over Sri Lanka at every level. Sri Lanka’s politicians and advisors & the foreign ministry as well as secretaries & senior public officials are to be held accountable from not looking into the interests of Sri Lanka’s sovereignty & territorial integrity when finalizing agreements.
Thus, in short India’s control over Sri Lanka is taking place under these themes & the following choke points.
- Trade Leverage – reducing supply to SL of essential goods (fuel, food, medicines) / revoke trade benefits under trade agreements
- Financial Assistance/Credit lines – cut credit lines / cut financial aid & destabilize Sri Lanka’s economy / without debt relief/loans
- Debt leverage – withhold debt restructuring / block favorable loan terms
- Infrastructure control – delay/withdraw investments in infrastructure projects / limit involvement in strategic projects like ports/airports/harbors
- Energy leverage – limit or cut off fuel & energy supplies & create economic crisis / cut energy supply as done to Bangladesh
- Labor market leverage – restrict Indian labor to impact industries relying on foreign workers
- Link aid to policy – demand Sri Lanka favor ethno-religious groups favorable to India
- Economic sanctions/trade barriers – impose tariffs / trade restrictions on SL exports to India / revoke trade preferences to destroy Sri Lankan industries.
- Humanitarian Air – withhold humanitarian aid during crisis / limit cultural & educational collaborations
- Influence world financial institutions – pressure IMF/WB to withhold support for Sri Lanka unless it aligns to India’s interests.
- Influence its military presence – increasing Indian defense collaborations & influence Sri Lanka’s defense policies
- Indian Ocean Shipping lanes – results in India limiting Sri Lanka’s access to critical maritime routes/prevent foreign military access
- Defense pacts – India can force dependency via “defense aid”
- Manipulate Sri Lanka’s foreign policy – India can pressure Sri Lanka to limit its military and economic ties with China,
India cannot dictate who Sri Lanka has economic relations with. Sri Lanka must clearly state that Sri Lanka will decide what is advantageous to Sri Lanka. When the question of European sanctions against Russia arose, India chose not to join & instead bought fuel at a cheap rate & sold it at higher rate to Europe! Though India was threatened with sanctions, India’s External Affairs was very clear about India’s policy. If India holds carrots for investments & trade, Sri Lanka must pursue & sign the free trade agreement with China. Sri Lanka must also expand its trade partners and not rely solely on India. The main fault line has been Sri Lanka’s dependency on imports & lethargy for domestic production & self-sufficiency. Such will automatically reduce dependency on imports & threats from India.
What is stopping Sri Lanka from voicing policy as clearly as Mrs. Bandaranaike who continues to be mentioned with respect for her ability to mean what she says & say what she means. Sri Lanka’s leaders have failed to follow her policy of non-alignment which won her friends from all corners of the world & she continues to be spoken highly unlike any of Sri Lanka’s leaders. Another key pillar Sri Lanka has failed & needs to leverage is the domestic governance vis a vis policy in handling domestic matters without allowing foreign interventions/influence & appeasing to foreign dictates. Sri Lanka must also learn to place its foot down on the cultural colonialism that is taking place alongside the digital colonialism wherein Sri Lanka’s identity is being subtly erased without a whimper.
Are Sri Lanka’s corporates, professionals, Trade Unions, 3 main pillars governing Sri Lanka, Public Servants, not worried or concerned about these scenarios or have they already been compromised to the enemy?
Sri Lanka’s politicians, policy advisors cannot be ignorant of these ground realities. If so what have they done to avert any national catastrophe as a result of over dependence on India instead of signing more agreements sealing Sri Lanka’s fate? How can Sri Lanka overcome Indian pressure & assert more independence in its foreign & domestic policies?
Shenali D Waduge
